“Hitting red five times in a row doesn’t make you a genius - it just means the wheel hasn’t caught up with you yet”
I’m writing this energised from a new brief. “If we could clone, we would, in fact the brief is ‘Michael’ again”. Nice starting point. Very clear. But carbon copies aren’t like the original. An opportunity to reflect.
The successful incumbent ‘Michael’, tricks us into thinking something works better than it does — because we’re ignoring the failures or fair wind he had in the role.
I find the whole idea of survivorship bias fascinating. It’s so simple. Understand this, and who and why your hiring, falls into place. It will also shine a light on why you’ve had unexpected successes and failures.
How was the incumbent hire made? The brief was, well, the same as five years ago and made by virtually the same panel. The process and hire were a success, why change the winning formula? The reality is twofold. One, the original process becomes self-reinforcing (good and bad) and two, we underestimate the influence of luck (again, good and bad - equally distorting).
I’m always keen to reduce things down to simple and effective actions – so what did we reflect on when the brief already seems so clearly defined? Three thoughts.
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Be aware survivorship bias exists. Simple and most important. Were they hired from a broad shortlist? Can you define the good fortune and adversity they encountered?
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Invert the brief. What kind of person would definitely fail here? It’s a more challenging and expensive question. By elimination there’s a bigger range of success factors revealed.
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Perceived safety is risky. The biggest risks are often the ones you don’t see — like the opportunities that were never taken.
These are reflections, not rules — every brief is different. Some demand an Oxbridge classicist. Others need a Firestarter (Results first, academics second). This isn’t about undoing what works — it’s about creating the space to ask what else might. The client understands culture best. However, there is enormous value in exploring things a little further, as we enjoyed doing this week.